Thursday, December 31, 2009

Another Year, Another Bankruptcy


Tally Time. It is time again to see whether my predictions for 2009 were right. Or if I was way off the mark.

The Highly Likelies first
1. Francis Collins will become the Director of the NIH........You Betcha I pegged that one.
2. We will see a pharmacogenetics lawsuit......Well, still haven't seen that yet, despite the FDA label changes

Batting 500, next up

Long Shots

1. X Prize winner: PacBio, ok, maybe I was a year early on this one
2. Oprah's gene scan bougus. Guess what? It Was!

Still at 500, who's next


Ok, these are what they say they are. Ridiculous. I don't think I can be held to the same standards for these swing for the fences.....

1. Mark Cuban Buys the rights to the 23andME database. Ok, I was off. DeCode tried to steal it and Google keeps dumping money into it......Both just as crazy as if Cuban would buy it......
Maybe we call that a fly out?

2. Next-Next-Next gen Sequencing will have heard of nanopore right? Is this Next-Next Gen? Or Next-Next-Next Gen? Hmmm. Foul Ball!

3. The last one is so silly I don't think it was meant to be called...........The US fracturing into territories and fighting against the world.......Not quite yet.

So on to this year's doozies!

Highly Likely

1. Another DTC failure......yes. I won't say which one.
2. One of the DTC Genomics companies will get into clinical care. They will set up shops. It may be a newcomer or an old dog. But it will happen.
3. We will have data on PGx testing with Plavix. And it will support the use.


1. Francis and Kari will start the Population Genome Study in the US
2. The XPrize will be won by Complete Genomics.


1. Again, Mark Cuban will Buy Sergey's share of 23andMe's database
2. Myriad will lose the first round of hearings re: their gene patents......

The Sherpa Says: If Kansas went bye bye last year, this year we will have to "Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain!"


Keith Robison said...

You've been hooked on nanopores for a long time, but until someone actually publishes a real sequence derived with them, they'll remain a curiosity IMHO.

Complete Genomics is impressive, but the X-prize criteria are pretty onerous -- I doubt they or PacBio will be gunning for it for at least 2 years.

Myriad's patents may be unpopular, but I have yet to hear a neutral lawyer raise serious legal issues with them. Of course, if these are jury trials (are they) I'd double down on your bet.

Steve Murphy MD said...

Ok, ok, but you gotta love the thought of it! You will notice the Myriad prediction is in the ridiculous section.

Daniel said...


I hear that there will be an announcement at the AGBT meeting at the end of February that may bring nanopore sequencing well and truly out of the "curiosity" cabinet.

Steve Murphy MD said...

Nice post. Yeah, maybe Complete is not the ideal candidate. But, the nanopore people could. The real question is what kind of level of accuracy and coverage will exist.

Misha said...

The oral arguments in the Myriad case are on January 21. Both sides want summary judgment. So for now, no jury. My prediction is this thing will eventually wind up at SCOTUS...

Happy New Year!

Steve Murphy MD said...

I love the census choices. BTW, SCOTUS is exactly where this belongs. Oh, and the Gene Patent Thingy too....