Thursday, January 7, 2010

Personal Genomics Flop.....big Belly Flop!

Daniel and Dan get quoted in an article in the Times yesterday and I am happy for them. It just goes to show how bloggers in this space ultimately shape the space.

That being said, everyone is left wondering "Where in the hell do we go from here in Personal Genomics?"

Well, I know where we are going in Personalized Medicine. PGx.

But as for personal genomics, the path is less clear. First we have to be honest about a few things.

1. Your genome is essentially worthless right now
2. We don't understand what the hell most of the SNPs and CNVs mean in the genome
3. In an economic downturn, very few people will buy this, no matter how cool it looks.
4. Don't believe me? How does Time's Invention of the Year ONLY GET 30,000 (if you believe) customers. How many iPhones sold after the listing in 2008?
5. Things we are certain of in the genome add very little to life planning or healthcare.

Now, if we can overcome those things we have to ask ourselves. Is this a software play or a genome database play. If this is a software investment......

1. Is the software being created that valuable?
2. Can you patent or create a moat around the analytical tools that were created by these companies, or are the tools just rehashing of other tools that exist
3. Does Prometheus ruin the ability to patent these tools?
4. Are these tools accurate and valuable? Ask J Craig fellas....
5. Will the lessons learned justify the investment? At least a few hundred million USD people!

Well, let's say it is NOT a software play, it is a genome database play.

1. How many people does it take to have a valuable database.
2. Is the database a legal liability worth the risk?
3. Will anyone want to buy the database?
4. Can there be a free database which will be more valuable than the "for sale" database
5. Can the database be curated and annotated easily?

So, after the million dollar open bars and zeppelins and celebs we are left with some real hard questions. Which is why I am very unclear as to the future of this "industry"

Is this really an industry all of its own? Or is this just a rehash of facebook?

Do you remember that fat kid? You know the one who said "Hey look at me! I am gonna make a HUGE SPLASH!"

Well, guess what porky, huge splash made..........

Now how in the hell does that SORE RED BELLY FEEL?

The Sherpa Says: A lot of pain and suffering may ultimately in the end prove worthless and the ripples may die.......Only to have some other fatso cause waves later on........

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