I make some pretty outlandish predictions on this blog, including Francis Collins will become director of the NIH.....I am not afraid to be wrong. If I see a trend or a problem, I call it. What has gotten people's attention is that I tend to be right more often than I am wrong....at least for now.....
I start out every year with some of these predictions, so I figure, why not look at the one's I made last year in 2008
As I looked into my magic 8-ball/Complete Genomics Scanner. Which came true? Here are the predictions:
1. Jim Watson will die.
Well, only a few base pairs off on this one. The legend Victor McKusick did pass, God rest his soul.....Damn that 10x coverage.
2. Mark Cuban would buy the rights to 23andMe's genome database.....I knew he would do something dastardly.....only it was not genome stealing.....it was insider trading..
3. The X-Prize would be won by a little known start up........At that time I thought Pac Bio would be ready to launch.....Guess I was wrong....
6. Academia will start to market personalized medicine..........Duke, Harvard, Mayo, Scripps, Mount Sinai, UCSF, Stamford, Wisconsin, Ohio State all joined the ranks. I wonder why Yale is not there????
8. One of the DTC companies will be sued.....Well, you can always count on California to regulate something....NY too..
Welcome to the Big Leagues of Healthcare my VC brethern!
9. Navigenics would launch and use telemedicine. Man was I wrong....instead they tried to pass themselves off as medicine despite stating in their terms of service you cannot use this for healthcare decisions.......Yet MDVIP is....so how does that work??? Oh, you pay 2500 USD....got it.
So, where did I stand.....
Absolutely Correct:
4 of 9, if you count legal proceedings from a state as getting sued......
4 of 9, if you count legal proceedings from a state as getting sued......
Close to correct:
1 of 8, McKusick dying is pretty damn close to Watson.....Damn that magic 8 ball....
Dead wrong:
4 of 9, Well........you can't guess them all. But I was right when it mattered most, which is more than I can say for A-Rod!
A near .500 Average will get you paid pretty well in the MLB. And most definintely will get you paid well in the world of Venture Capital.....or Wall Street.
The Sherpa Says: When you spend as much time climbing as I do, you see a lot of climbers come and go.......One thing is for sure, that Mountain never goes anywhere.
We have a lot of climbing left to do in 2009, we haven't even finsihed the approach!
7 comments:
Those predictions are fine.
This year we will see some new genetic tests being developed and improved. We will also see 23andMe start to follow the business plan of DNA Direct. I'm sure some new personalized genetic testing company will go public.
On a side note, we will see Andrew coming up with as many business ideas as he can....JK.
I believe you are wrong on both 4 and 8 (you did choose to use the 'absolutely correct' term, therefore 8 would not count, and I believe you'll find that Oprah had her DNA tested by African Ancestry in 2007.
To second anonymous. It does not matter anyways. The past events were past events. All of the people in the field of genetics can make up a list of 10 events and get a few right and a few wrong. Just leave it be. We are all in this field to help people with genetic conditions (at least that is why I use this blog as a learning tool and why I am in the field of genetics).
Dr. Murphy, I hope you get a good patient load in your first year of seeing patients. Please post some case studies on your website as they would be interesting reads.
Signed,
N/A
I will do...provided they can be reliably deidentified....
I still maintain that predicting the Oprah thing and the state regulation thing are pretty good calls....
Looking forward to 2009!
-Steve
Nice predictions, Steve! You were almost totally right. :)
What about 2009?
How about a post about the current challenges? I feel that talking about what needs to be done is important.
I feel that we should have a national, local, or state DNA banks. If we want to be able to test for gene mutations for people that are alive today in 400 years, how are they going to be able trace back a condition in a family beyond the people that are alive?
The few DNA banks that are run by private companies are fine, but what happens with the DNA samples if the company closes?
By building state DNA banks, researchers (if family/person gave consent for research), doctors, and others will have access to the information.
http://biotech.law.lsu.edu/cases/privacy/johnson_v_virginia_brief.htm
These DNA banks SHOULD NOT be held at universities.
While the field of medical genetics progresses, we need to redefine some technical terms and get everyone on the same page.
Yes doctor, a genetic disorder can skip a generation, two, or three and reappear.
Most advances in human genetics will be lost if we don't have the infrastructure to handle the information and know how to provide the service to the public.
Right now we don't have the infrastructure in place....not even close!!!!
Patients who are diagnosed with a cancer syndrome are typically scheduled for a 1-2 hour counseling session. Who is doing the detailed family histories in the hospital floors and clinic departments that don't have a GC?
23andMe can test thousands of citizens a year if they want, but if the people can’t get access to the professionals who understand the clinical limitations to the information gathered from those whole genome scans, it is a waste of effort by 23andMe (I don’t care about how many millions or billions you make….it’s the people that matter). Why doesn’t 23andMe fund an educational program for PA’s and nurses to help out the clinical geneticists and genetic counselors? I would imagine Google has enough money to fund an educational program.
One thing I never read about in all of these genetic blogs is the REAL issue. What is the real issue? THE NO SHOWS!!!!!!! Those who are scheduled to be seen in a genetics clinic and never show up!!
A HUGE study needs to be done to compare the rats for how often people don't show up for appointments between departments to access how big of an issue the no shows is. It has been estimated that around 20% of patients that are to be seen in a genetics department never show up! That is a huge percentage. I doubt the percentage in cardiology, optha, neuro, derm, OBGYN, and the others is not that high. Find out why they are not showing up and deliver a service that they feel comfortable with and get to them.
We need a massive overhaul!!
Signed,
N/A
@ Anonymous challenges
Great comments. I completely agree with most of what you have said.
"The few DNA banks that are run by private companies are fine, but what happens with the DNA samples if the company closes? "
Agreed, Pat Kennedy is all too aware of this problem....
Some differences:
"These DNA banks SHOULD NOT be held at universities"
Why not?
"Patients who are diagnosed with a cancer syndrome are typically scheduled for a 1-2 hour counseling session. Who is doing the detailed family histories in the hospital floors and clinic departments that don't have a GC?"
Do you think they can bill for that extra time as an inpatient???
"One thing I never read about in all of these genetic blogs is the REAL issue. What is the real issue? THE NO SHOWS!!!!!!! Those who are scheduled to be seen in a genetics clinic and never show up!!"
No shows only matter to those who actually ARE referred.....Which is a woeful number....
-Steve
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