First Mari, Now Linda. Who's next?

First,

I wish Linda Avey all the best, eve though she stared me down in 2007 like I was some pariah doing awful things screwing up her plans for world domination.......

Second,
I wanted to point out that this is the second Woman CEO to "step down" to do other things in the personal genomics space.

The last was replaced by some guy named Lord.

I wonder if 23andME will get a guy named Jesus?

The public scoop From Kara Swisher Linda's email to the 23andme drones.

"I’m leaving 23andMe and have begun making plans for the creation of a foundation dedicated to the study of this disorder. The foundation will leverage the research platform we’ve built at 23andMe–the goal is to drive the formation of the world’s largest community of individuals with a family history of Alzheimer’s, empower them with their genetic information and track their brain health using state-of-the-art tools. We’ve always planned to include Alzheimer’s in our 23andWe research mission…I’m just approaching it from a new angle."

It is becoming more clear.

With Linda gone, Google can now buy 23andMe.

Maybe make it a Google App???

Interesting, but it is with Anne's email that I am most curious......

"In the weeks ahead, we will outline a strategy for the company that we believe will make genetics a routine part of health care and will lead us to making significant research discoveries."

Holy Sh!t Google has found a way to do a 20 year cohort study in less than a month! Maybe the also have found a way to brainwash physicians into performing these tests? Have they partnered with Obama to have everyone spit in a cup with their census data and get barcode tattoos with their genomes linked to a central database at flag@whitehouse.gov or maybe BRAVENEWWORLD@Whitehouse.gov?

The Sherpa Says: Buh Bye Linda.......Hey Mari, how's that video game thing going? Well, She says the magic words "Build Physician Sales Channels" Must be Navigenics sees the reality of the market.

Prediction from a Reader.

Ok, another sleepy day up in New Haven.......

But not with me. I received some comments from my last post which were interesting and I want to share one with all of you....

This year we will see some new genetic tests being developed and improved. We will also see 23andMe start to follow the business plan of DNA Direct.

This is a pretty insightful comment. Will we see 23andMe go for the DNADirect business? If the data behind genome scans is currently weak, how can 23andMe monetize their model? Yes, we all know about the database thing....Isn't that what landed Celera in a heap of pain?

Seriously, will 23andMe begin offering single gene tests? I am always confused by this one. DNADirect states that they do not mark up their tests, but how do they make money? I am curious about this one too. But if you look, their BRCA testing it costs 3465 USD which includes pre and post test counseling. The Cost of the Test through Myriad is 3120 USD, which is a difference of 345 USD. But the test through DNA Direct includes pre- and post- test counseling.

So 345 for counseling? I think that is an incredibly cheap amount. In fact it pushes the limits of the true value, which I think is around 1000 USD.

How do they do it? Through, telegenetics. And, if you look closely, if all you want is counselling, they only charge you 150 USD...likely per consultation, thus making 45 USD, which doubtfully can cover overhead. So I ask again, would 23andME like this model? I say yes, because if you use a genetic counselor rather than a physician you can pay them about 50-70,000 USD.

So, if we do the math 1200 consults need to be provided per year to cover the CGC salary. What if that is a physician at 150,000 USD? I think you get the picture.

So what do you get from a physician that you don't from a CGC? I think I have been over that one a few times now. Thus the higher salary. But for a business, do they care about that difference? More importantly, would 23andMe care?

Doubtful......

So I tend to agree with my reader. If 23andMe can sell medically relevant tests to consumers skipping the doctor and using the counselor instead, then this is an attractive business to them. But if you throw in physicians, then you may have a problem. So heads up Ryan, looks like you may have a healthy competition....

Now, here's the big question. Who is ordering the test? In CA like many other states a physician has to be responsible for ordering these tests, just like the Viagra Scheme.....

So, will we see more of this "creative" entrepreneurism which will likely disintegrate the trust between providers and patients? A most resounding yes. At the same time, should patients trust providers who often miss these diagnoses or fail to test?

How do we solve this? My gut tells me the responsible way to do this is out there. It doesn't include cutting corners for patient empowerment. What it does include is education for physicians and healthcare practitioners on a scale so massive that it only can be done over the television, radio and internet. It will take millions and millions of dollars.......Didn't Navigenics get 25 million? That should cover the first few years of what I propose we do.......

The Sherpa Says: I am still waiting for a press release to be drafted before I announce my news. Don't switch that dial......genomicTV will be right back!

A lot to chew and then spit!

As my friends and I work furiously to get the Sherpa's Plan to public(BTW it will be released in parts, and no I didn't spend a T.Boone Pickens like 1.2 billion dollars on it.) , some things have happened in the blogosphere.

Let's recap.

Last month I receive an emailer about price point from Navigenics. My friends who took the test did too.

This had me wondering......what is the market for a test? I delved back into my business plan from 2005. You know...the one where I actually created 23andMe but called it helixhealthofconnecticutcare. I looked at the stats on who would pay what for a test and it hit me.......they're gonna drop their price and service. And switch to a full subscription model. BTW, in my old model the feds don't get us, but the customers do b/c they aren't trusting what we are doing with their samples, b/c we aren't a not for profit company......Instead we are profiting off their DNA......Hey that gives me a great idea.....Why not send 23andME public, giving one share of stock to each participant???? Don't say I didn't give you a brilliant idea Linda.....BTW, these would be common stock....Oh well, no phone call from 23andMe......

But then, I received an invite from a business consulting firm I work with to participate in a survey.....Guess what? This was the physician version of the same marketing questionnaire. Interesting. I am now thinking....man if Navigenics would only give me a call we could chat about something very useful......but.......no phone call :(

By that time. Drew Y at Think Gene had just visited Coriell and posted about the Death of DTC genomics...... This got him blasted almost as bad as the Sherpa did.....but believe it or not, upon talking to Drew, he also received a ton of tremendous support.

Then suddenly, well maybe not....I had heard about this from a little birdy on the other coast, 23andMe Democratizes (code word for attempts to do what Coriell is doing only for 399 instead of FREE) their service. Well, not exactly what Coriell is doing. Coriell is focusing on Medical Traits and has launched an Informed Cohort Oversight Board. A concept developed by the good boys in Boston.....Which I am proud to sit on......So what does the blogosphere do? What it always does....fight...."This is Great!" "No this is Bad!" "No this is illegal" That's why I love our little DNANetwork!!!! So Drew again posts on this and gets some heat, but also gets some good press...

Even from a reporter who wouldn't give him the time to chat a few years ago.....But now agrees with Drew.....sort of.....

With all of this rigamaroll even the Kaiser Team chimed in

23andMe co-founder Anne Wojcicki said, "We're really focusing on the democratization of genetic information" (Tansey, San Francisco Chronicle, 9/9). The firm hopes the price cut will provide an influx of genetic information and "hasten the day when a full genetic screening becomes routine medical practice," the AP/Denver Post reports. Wojcicki said, "The mission of the company has always been to enable anyone to be able to get access to their genetic information. We really believe strongly that at some point everyone who's born will get genotyped," adding, "You'll have your information and you'll use that to help guide some of your health care decisions." Linda Avey, the company's other co-founder, said, "It's just a data problem. We don't have enough" (Wohlsen, AP/Denver Post, 9/8). Avey said if the price "was what was really holding [consumers] back, this will be a better price for them to get involved" (Pollack, New York Times, 9/9).

Blaine jumps aboard and writes "But genetic genealogists (and undoubtedly many others) DO chose their testing provider based on the results they receive." and that's why 23andMe will succeed.... But you know you have won when the CW or WB or whatever they are calling themselve covers you. But then Drew insults me "If you paid $1000 for 23andMe.v1, and you are pissed, and you demand a refund —you are a fool." and goes on to champion Coriell

So what's my take.....this is all a distraction. We need to focus on what is real and what is missing.

That's why I will launch the Sherpa's Plan in 1.2 weeks. I am so frustrated that this is what it has come down to.......The healthcare system is found lacking and all we have to offer it is 399 SNP scans??? My god. That's not gonna hasten anything....all it does is turn physicians into skeptics....

The Sherpa Says: There is something better up this mountain. Just because you ascended your first 1000 doesn't mean you are at the top....more likely, you are still closer to the bottom....Remember Manhattan was bought for bobbles.....I am sure the Manhattan, Minqua, Savanos and Wappanoos are pissed about that trade too.........